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Feb. 12
In the Northeast, there is little to do but stay inside and read Doris Kearns Goodwin's monumental biography of Abraham Lincoln. It is the definitive study of learning, and in its own way a manual for all general managers torn between doing the right and the popular. Meanwhile, outside is a reminder why it is a good time for pitchers and catchers to report -- from Tucson, Ariz., to Winter Haven, Fla. This spring, there is a lot that's new, a list that for the fifth straight spring training does not include an owner for the ExpoNationals. First, we have the World Baseball Classic, a terrific idea for the game's worldwide marketing. We are constantly reminded that the event has no perfect formula. As rosters are constructed piecemeal, one suggestion is to focus less on who may be coming up sore (players do get hurt every spring) or why South Africa is in, and focus more on this initial WBC being a trial run that eventually will be more significant in growing the Asian, Latin and European markets than any U.S. television ratings will demonstrate in the shadow of March Madness. Next, we have the continued specter of weaning the sport off the steroids of the '90s and the amphetamines of the last 50 years. Medical friends remind me that the chemists who create the designer drugs make a lot more money than those who devise the tests, so don't expect the prototypical body to belong to John McDonald. As for amphetamines, some have suggested that we will see a lot of 2-1 games in August. Jayson Stark thinks we may see Starbucks and Peet's in every clubhouse, and we shall see how players find new ways to get "Start Me Up/I'll Never Stops," such as the growing Ritalin abuse. Jim Leyland is back, managing the Tigers. Grady Little, too, with the Dodgers. Jim Tracy joyfully fled L.A. for Pittsburgh. Longtime Angels lieutenant Joe Maddon has been entrusted with leading the Devil Rays out of their Dark Ages, while Joe Girardi is entrusted with the new reconstruction of the Marlins. Meanwhile, there are dozens of significant old faces in new places: Mike Piazza in San Diego; Nomar Garciaparra, Rafael Furcal and Bill Mueller in LA; Matt Morris in San Francisco; Billy Wagner, Carlos Delgado and Paul Lo Duca in Queens; Alfonso Soriano in Washington; Johnny Damon in the South Bronx; Coco Crisp, Josh Beckett and Mike Lowell in Boston; Kris and Anna Benson in Baltimore; A.J. Burnett, B.J. Ryan, Lyle Overbay, Troy Glaus and Bengie Molina in Toronto; Jim Thome and Javier Vazquez on Chicago's South Side; Frank Thomas and Milton Bradley in Oakland; Kevin Millwood and Brad Wilkerson in Texas ...
But we still don't know if we'll see Roger Clemens, Rafael Palmeiro or Sammy Sosa again, or what we'll see in Barry Bonds.
Which leads to the first poll of the season. More than 50 executives, scouts, managers and coaches were asked three questions: Of all the rookies and young players in their first full seasons, which do you believe will eventually be "difference makers"?1. Jeremy Hermida, OF, Florida: "If there is a can't-miss hitting prospect, it is Hermida," says one AL GM. "He's a star." Problem is, in 2006, there won't be a lot around him in the Marlins' lineup other than Miguel Cabrera. GMs drool at Hermida's 111-walk/89K numbers in the minors, and his 1.017 OPS in September. With Cabrera and Hanley Ramirez and all the pitching Larry Beinfest is stockpiling, the reconstruction may not take as long as the last time the Marlins broke up the team. That is, if they don't have to move from South Beach to a strip mall in Tecumcari, N.M.
2. Francisco Liriano, LHP, Minnesota: The second gem from the A.J. Pierzynski trade is 22 years old, touches 97-98 mph, and had funky and Santana-esque numbers that included 126 hits allowed and 204 strikeouts in 167 2/3 innings in the minors. Kyle Lohse had better pitch well because Liriano and Scott Baker both could be in the Twins' rotation.
3. Felix Hernandez, RHP, Seattle: "He may have the best stuff I've ever seen," says an AL GM. "I wouldn't be surprised if he were one of the five best starters in the league this season." He turns 20 on John Keenan Day (April 8), has that sick stuff and showed last September that the 363K/119 BB/306 IP numbers are no fluke in terms of command, as he dropped 2-and-0 changeups and curveball hammers for strikes.4. Brandon Wood, SS, LA Angels: Look, this is the future, unless he's at third base come July. Orlando Cabrera has three more years and is a great defender, and there are many teams that lust for Erick Aybar, the Angels' other shortstop prospect. But the rangy 21-year-old Wood has rare power that should only get better as he fills out -- 43 homers in the minors, 13 in 29 games in the Arizona Fall League, diligent makeup.
5. Delmon Young, OF, Tampa Bay: "If the Devil Rays didn't have so many good outfielders, he would probably be in the big leagues in April," says one scout. No question he can be an impact hitter, but the 4BB/33K numbers in Triple-A indicate a couple of months repeating Triple-A wouldn't be a bad thing.
6. B.J. Upton, SS, Tampa Bay: Between Ozzie Smith and Jimy Williams, the Rays can find out if the elder Upton can play shortstop. If he can master the footwork, he can be a monster player. He is paying the price for being rushed and moved around, but if he can play short and not be moved to third or the outfield, he will be a star. Younger brother Justin -- bigger than B.J. and very mature -- will have a very short minor-league shelf life.
7. Brian McCann, C, Atlanta: When All-Star Johnny Estrada got run over by Darin Erstad, McCann rushed in and helped the Braves finish first for the 14th consecutive full season. He had an impressive .748 OPS, handled pitchers masterfully and allowed the Braves to trade Estrada for bullpen help. Oh yes. Right behind McCann is Jarrod Saltalamacchia, rated by many as the best catching prospect in the minor leagues.8. Jonathan Papelbon, RHP, Boston: In his second full pro season -- and second as a starter -- Papelbon shot right up to Fenway Park and was a major contributor to the Red Sox bullpen down the stretch. The organization wants him to start, to see him as a 700-out-a-year horse, and at 25, he is ready to step in and do it now. The Red Sox love his bring-it-on makeup, but one Boston official warns, "The worst thing would be to start comparing him to Roger Clemens. No one else in modern baseball history is as good as Clemens. Why should we ask a rookie to try?"
9. Prince Fielder and Rickie Weeks, Milwaukee: There may be some growing pains. Weeks has some work to do defensively. But the right side of the Brewer infield is set for years. 10. Brandon McCarthy, RHP, Chicago WS:. If Ken Williams hadn't assembled so much pitching, McCarthy would be a candidate to win 15 or more games. "He'll be in that rotation come September," says one scout. "And he'll be right there in line behind (Mark) Buehrle." Also receiving multiple votes: Jason Kubel, OF, Minnesota; Ryan Zimmerman, 3B, Washington; Alex Gordon, 3B-OF, Kansas City; Hanley Ramirez, SS, Florida; Justin Verlander, RHP, Detroit; Jeremy Sowers, LHP, Cleveland; Jon Lester, LHP, Boston; Craig Hansen, Closer, Boston; Chris Young, CF, Arizona (too bad he broke his hand this week and will miss most of spring training); Justin Upton, SS-OF, Arizona; Erick Aybar, SS, LA Angels; Andy Marte, 3B, Cleveland; Ronny Cedeno, SS, Cubs; Felix Pie, OF, Cubs; Chad Billingsley, RHP, LA Dodgers.Who do you believe will have a breakout season?
1. Joe Mauer, C, Minnesota: Injuries have essentially limited him to one full season, in which he had 52 extra-base hits and an .811 OPS. "His knee is fine now, and he wants to catch 135 games," says GM Terry Ryan. "If that happens, he could be the best catcher in the game," says one NL GM. "He is an extraordinary handler of pitchers, and he's an impact hitter who makes contact and drives the ball with power to the alleys." 2. Casey Kotchman,1B, LA Angels: "He is going to take off," says one coach. Injuries held him back in the minors, but he put up the rarest numbers -- more walks and more extra-base hits than strikeouts -- and Angels coaches say he's learning to lift the ball. 3. Coco Crisp, CF, Boston: "He has gone to the right place -- big crowds, pressure," says one NL GM. "He will love the attention, and as one of the best fastball hitters in the game, he will prosper in front of Manny and Ortiz." Here's his career track over the last three years: 15-24-42 doubles, 3-15-16 homers, .655-.730-.810 OPS. 4. Jeremy Reed, CF, Seattle: His .322 OBP was a disappointment, but he had the wrist injury. "Every number shows he was the best defensive center fielder in our league," says one AL official. "And he's going to hit. Just look at his history." 5. Scott Kazmir, LHP, Tampa Bay: He's put on 20 pounds, and already has 215 strikeouts in 219 major-league innings. "He's at the point in his career when his command should improve," says a scout, "and when that happens, he could be a star." 6. Brad Wilkerson, OF, Texas: OK, he fell from 32 to 11 homers, but he was hurt and played at pitcher-friendly RFK Stadium. Now get him healthy and put him in the AL's best park for left-handed batters ... 7. Mike Gonzalez, Closer, Pittsburgh: "We're giving him a chance to become one of the elite relievers," says GM Dave Littlefield. The numbers -- 101 2/3 IP, 71 H, 119 K -- speak for his stuff, and after two setup seasons he's ready to close. 8. Matt Murton, OF, Cubs: The Red Sox could not have won the 2004 World Series without including him in the Nomar Garciaparra trade, but they wish they had him back. Murton jumped from Double-A, had a .907 OPS and showed the Cubs that not only can he hit, but he can run and has makeup that's off the charts. 9. Justin Morneau, 1B, Minnesota: In a short time, Morneau has become a controversial figure. He had several injuries, but his willingness to play was questioned by teammates and the .304 OBP was distressing. But he has a big-time bat and power, and in a down time for American League first basemen, he still intrigues many in the game. 10. Erik Bedard, LHP, Baltimore: He is 12-18, 4.31 lifetime, and has yet to get past the command problems of getting from 0-and-2 to 3-and-2. But the stuff is there, and when teams like the Cubs asked for him in deals, assistant GM Jim Duquette told them he considers Bedard a potential No. 1 starter who cannot be moved until proven otherwise. Also receiving multiple votes: Rickie Weeks, 2B, Milwaukee; Conor Jackson, 1B, Arizona; Jose Castillo, 2B, Pittsburgh; Macay McBride, LHP, Atlanta.
Who do you believe will have the biggest comebacks?
1. Eric Gagne, CL, LA Dodgers
2. Rocco Baldelli, CF, Tampa Bay
3. Frank Thomas, DH, Oakland.
4. Jim Thome, DH, Chicago WS
5. Ben Sheets, RHP, Milwaukee
6. Barry Bonds, LF, San Francisco
7. Nomar Garciaparra, 1B, LA Dodgers
8. Mike Lowell, 3B, Boston
9. Scott Rolen, 3B, St. Louis
10. Edgar Renteria, SS, Atlanta Also receiving multiple votes: Zack Greinke, Kansas City; Kip Wells and Oliver Perez, Pittsburgh; Kerry Wood and Mark Prior, Cubs; Curt Schilling, Boston. Gagne changes the Dodgers into a major bullpen power, with Danys Baez, Yhency Brazoban and Jonathan Broxton in front of him. Thomas completely changes the A's, Rolen the Cardinals' lineup and defense, Renteria the Braves, and the Red Sox will go as far as the comebacks of Lowell, Schilling and Keith Foulke take them.
Six teams to watch
Think back to this time, last year. Other than USA Today's Bob Nightengale, did anyone think the White Sox would not only win the world championship, but end up with a case as one of the five best teams of the last two decades? Honestly, did you really believe the Athletics were a 90-win team? Or that the Braves would finish first, again? There were many of us who believed the Twins had a great chance to win the World Series. Sure, everyone believes the Blue Jays can make a run at the Yankees and Red Sox. The White Sox and Athletics seem to be the teams most likely to make the World Series from the American League, the Cardinals in the NL. Every season, there are dramatic surprises. Every spring, there are teams that we are curious to see for different reasons, and here are six teams I cannot wait to see unfurl: 1. Milwaukee Brewers: They finished at .500 for the first time since 1992 after averaging 69 wins a season from '99 through '04. With Fielder, Weeks, J.J. Hardy (.565 first half OPS, .865 second half) and Bill Hall, they have a strong core of young players to blend with veterans Carlos Lee, Geoff Jenkins and Corey Koskie. Now, if Ben Sheets can just stay healthy, the pitching can be good, especially with Mike Maddux handling it. Here's a question: Can you rank the top four left-handed pitchers in strikeouts last season? If you guessed Johan Santana (238), Randy Johnson (211), Doug Davis (208) and Chris Capuano (176), you won. Doug Melvin has quietly stocked the pitching with deals for Davis, Capuano, Derrick Turnbow, David Bush, Jose Capellan, Matt Wise, Tomo Ohka and Zach Jackson, and they now may have the depth to creep up from 81 toward 90 wins if the young players continue to develop. 2. Pittsburgh Pirates: Littlefield knew the rebuilding would be a slow process, but now, in 2006, his concentration on pitching may pay off. If Jim Colborn can help Kip Wells and Oliver Perez, then with Zach Duke, Paul Maholm and several other young arms and a bullpen with three power lefties, the improvement can come quickly. There is some more money, as evidenced by Littlefield holding onto the much-sought Craig Wilson. Sean Casey, Joe Randa and Jeromy Burnitz aren't impact bats, but they can play and help younger players like Chris Duffy, Jose Castillo and Ryan Doumit and provide depth around Jason Bay. The Pirates have not reached .500 since Barry Bonds left after the 1992 season, so to approach it after averaging a 67-92 record in the ensuing full seasons would be a significant step forward. 3. Arizona Diamondbacks: They have had only two straight losing seasons, but with a new regime there is a lot of hope. Where Stephen Drew, Justin Upton, Conor Jackson, Carlos Quentin, Chris Young, Dustin Nippert and Miguel Montero track from February to September will be one of the ongoing storylines. This new front office changes everything. 4. Tampa Bay Devil Rays: Maddon is not going to turn the Rays into instant contenders. But as he points out, he has a lot of offense, and Carl Crawford, Rocco Baldelli, Aubrey Huff, Jorge Cantu, Jonny Gomes, Travis Lee and Julio Lugo can hit anywhere in the lineup. There is the Sean Burroughs resurrection story, and the wait on the elder Upton and younger Young. GM Andrew Friedman has to restock the young pitching to go with Kazmir. While there are serious doubts about the two Rice No. 1 picks -- Jeff Niemann and Wade Townsend are a combined 0-6 in pro ball and are nearly 24 -- getting Edwin Jackson and Chuck Tiffany was a move in the right direction. Lugo, Huff and others will likely be traded during spring training or during the season for more young arms. 5. Texas Rangers: With Kevin Millwood, Adam Eaton and Vicente Padilla, Buck Showalter finally has some starters in front of his bullpen, as well as all the young pitchers John Hart accrued over the years. Wilkerson may find heaven, Ian Kinsler can step in at second, and if Hank Blalock can turn things around, the Rangers can make a nice run in the AL West. 6. Minnesota Twins: There had been expectations that their offseason moves would be sexier than getting Luis Castillo and Tony Batista. To get enough offense, Torii Hunter must be healthy and Mauer, Morneau, Michael Cuddyer and/or Jason Kubel must take off. If the Twins get close, they can be scary with Santana, Liriano, Carlos Silva and Brad Radke starting and Joe Nathan in front of a deep bullpen, and they can beat anyone in September and October. The White Sox are formidable, but the AL Central is potentially a deep, talented division. If the Tigers can keep Carlos Guillen and Magglio Ordonez healthy, they are dangerous. And the Indians have some of the best young talent in the game. If their starters remain healthy, if in the second half they get help from a couple out of the Adam Miller/Jeremy Sowers/Fausto Carmona/Fernando Cabrera/Tony Sipp group, if Andy Marte emerges and if the plate discipline Franklin Gutierrez showed in Venezuela translates to the regular season, this could be a pennant-winning team. As pitchers and catchers begin reporting Wednesday, at least half the teams in baseball believe they have a reasonable chance to make it into the league divisional series. And as Blue Jays GM J.P. Ricciardi always says, "If you can make it into the playoffs, it's like March Madness -- anything can happen."
Indeed, as someone who remembers that he picked the White Sox to finish third but was the only one on ESPN.com to pick them to beat Boston in ALDS, the reminders of how things change are fresh.
Hey, Manny Ramirez may decide to retire and save the rain forests of Brazil.
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